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Sol de Mayo vs Sportivo Peñarol — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
CANC
00:00
Sportivo Peñarol
Sportivo Peñarol
3/29/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 25Estadio Sol De Mayo (Viedma, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sol de Mayo49%
×Draw26%
Sportivo Peñarol25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sol de Mayo
1.52
Sportivo Peñarol
1.00

Sol de Mayo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sol de Mayo
1.37
Sportivo Peñarol
0.87

allows per match

Sol de Mayo
1.14
Sportivo Peñarol
1.66

finishing

Sol de Mayo+0.00on par
Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de Mayo ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sol de Mayo or draw
75%
Sol de Mayo or Sportivo Peñarol
74%
Draw or Sportivo Peñarol
51%

Winning margin

Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
25%
Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
78%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
45%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
20%
Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals
63%
Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals
26%
Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
66%
Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de Mayo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de Mayo attack 1.37 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sol de Mayo scores more
49%
level
26%
Sportivo Peñarol scores more
25%

Sol de Mayo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sol de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sol de Mayo host Sportivo Peñarol

March 29, 2020: Sol de Mayo take on Sportivo Peñarol in Torneo Federal A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sol de Mayo host Sportivo Peñarol at Estadio Sol De Mayo (Viedma, Provincia de Río Negro).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.