Sol de Mayo vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 58+ matches
Sol de Mayo47%
Sportivo Desamparados25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sol de Mayo creates 51% more chances
Season form · 110 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sol de Mayo ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sol de Mayo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches
Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.36 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sol de Mayo attack 1.37 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37
Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.67 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Sol de Mayo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Sol de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Estudiantes S.l.Sportivo Desamparados
Circulo Deportivo
Sportivo PeñarolSol de MayoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sol de Mayo host Sportivo Desamparados on Sunday, 2 February 2020 at 20:30. The match is part of the Torneo Federal A 2018/2019 season.
Sol de Mayo 0 – 1 Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados beat Sol de Mayo 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on February 2, 2020.
Goals: F. Torres (87').
The match was played at Estadio Sol De Mayo (Viedma, Provincia de Río Negro).