Sol de Mayo 0–4 Sansinena: Result & Stats

Sol de Mayo

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sansinena

5/17/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 9Estadio Sol De Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sol de Mayo45%

×Draw28%

Sansinena27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sol de MayoExpected goals in this matchSansinena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.95

Sol de Mayo

1.33

Sansinena

0.95

Sol de Mayo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 85 away

1.37

creates per match

0.76

1.14

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Sol de Mayo

1.37

Sansinena

0.76

allows per match

Sol de Mayo

1.14

Sansinena

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de Mayo ↓

Sansinena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sol de Mayo or draw

73%

Sol de Mayo or Sansinena

72%

Draw or Sansinena

55%

Winning margin

Sol de Mayo wins by 2+

21%

Sansinena wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sol de Mayo 1+ goals

74%

Sol de Mayo 2+ goals

38%

Sol de Mayo 3+ goals

15%

Sansinena 1+ goals

61%

Sansinena 2+ goals

25%

Sansinena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)

63%

Sansinena (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de Mayo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de Mayo attack 1.37 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sol de Mayo scores more

45%

level

28%

Sansinena scores more

27%

Sol de Mayo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sol de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff