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Sokol Živanice vs Sokol Brozany — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
0 – 0
Sokol Brozany
Sokol Brozany
10/30/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 14Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Živanice43%
×Draw25%
Sokol Brozany32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.51
Sokol Brozany
1.27

Sokol Živanice creates 19% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Sokol Brozany
1.23

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Sokol Brozany
1.36

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Sokol Brozany+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Sokol Brozany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
68%
Sokol Živanice or Sokol Brozany
75%
Draw or Sokol Brozany
57%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Brozany wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
78%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
44%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
19%
Sokol Brozany 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Brozany 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Brozany 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
57%
Sokol Brozany (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Sokol Brozany away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.36 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Sokol Brozany defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sokol Brozany attack 1.23 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
43%
level
25%
Sokol Brozany scores more
32%

Sokol Živanice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Živanice 0–0 Sokol Brozany

Sokol Živanice and Sokol Brozany drew 0-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.