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Sokol Živanice vs Pardubice II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pardubice II
Pardubice II
3/26/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 18Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Živanice50%
×Draw23%
Pardubice II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.80
Pardubice II
1.24

Sokol Živanice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 79 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Pardubice II
1.18

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Pardubice II
1.95

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Pardubice II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Pardubice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
74%
Sokol Živanice or Pardubice II
77%
Draw or Pardubice II
50%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
28%
Pardubice II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
54%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
27%
Pardubice II 1+ goals
71%
Pardubice II 2+ goals
35%
Pardubice II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
66%
Pardubice II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Pardubice II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.95 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Pardubice II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pardubice II attack 1.18 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
50%
level
23%
Pardubice II scores more
26%

Sokol Živanice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Živanice vs Pardubice II

Sokol Živanice beat Pardubice II 5-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.