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Sokol Zápy vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
3/20/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 17Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Zápy63%
×Draw20%
Sokol Živanice17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Zápy
2.14
Sokol Živanice
1.03

Sokol Zápy creates 108% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sokol Zápy
2.40
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Sokol Zápy
0.93
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Zápy ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokol Zápy or draw
83%
Sokol Zápy or Sokol Živanice
80%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
37%

Winning margin

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
39%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
88%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
63%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
36%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
64%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
28%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
78%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Zápy at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Zápy attack 2.40 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.14

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Sokol Zápy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sokol Zápy scores more
63%
level
20%
Sokol Živanice scores more
17%

Sokol Zápy at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sokol Zápy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Zápy 3–2 Sokol Živanice

Sokol Zápy beat Sokol Živanice 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy in Brandýs nad Labem.