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Sokol Tasovice vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
CANC
15:00
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
5/16/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 20Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sokol Tasovice59%
×Draw20%
Stará Říše20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
2.20
Stará Říše
1.22

Sokol Tasovice creates 80% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.49
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
80%
Sokol Tasovice or Stará Říše
80%
Draw or Stará Říše
41%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
37%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
64%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
37%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
70%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
34%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
74%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.20

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
59%
level
20%
Stará Říše scores more
20%

Sokol Tasovice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Tasovice vs Stará Říše — Match Preview

Sokol Tasovice face Stará Říše on May 16, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sokol Tasovice host Stará Říše at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.