Sokol Markovo 0–1 Borislav 2009: Result & Stats

Sokol Markovo

FT

0 – 1

Borislav 2009

9/26/2020

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 8Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Sokol Markovo56%

×Draw21%

Borislav 200923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol MarkovoExpected goals in this matchBorislav 2009

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.28

Sokol Markovo

2.10

Borislav 2009

1.28

Sokol Markovo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 79 away

1.68

creates per match

0.91

1.66

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Sokol Markovo

1.68

Borislav 2009

0.91

allows per match

Sokol Markovo

1.66

Borislav 2009

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Borislav 2009 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw

77%

Sokol Markovo or Borislav 2009

79%

Draw or Borislav 2009

44%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

34%

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

88%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

62%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

35%

Borislav 2009 1+ goals

72%

Borislav 2009 2+ goals

37%

Borislav 2009 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

71%

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.10

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more

56%

level

21%

Borislav 2009 scores more

23%

Sokol Markovo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff