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Sokol Lom vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
CANC
15:00
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
5/9/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 15Soukeník UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom64%
×Draw18%
Mariánské Lázně17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.45
Mariánské Lázně
1.21

Sokol Lom creates 102% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
83%
Sokol Lom or Mariánské Lázně
82%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
36%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
42%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
91%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
70%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
44%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
70%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
34%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
79%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.45

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
64%
level
18%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
17%

Sokol Lom at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Lom face Mariánské Lázně (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Sokol Lom hosting Mariánské Lázně. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Lom host Mariánské Lázně at Soukeník UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.