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Sokol Lanžhot vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
FT
4 – 0
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
8/25/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 4Na Šlajsi (Lanžhot)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot70%
×Draw18%
Stará Říše13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lanžhot
2.38
Stará Říše
0.90

Sokol Lanžhot creates 164% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot
2.42
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot
0.85
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw
87%
Sokol Lanžhot or Stará Říše
82%
Draw or Stará Říše
30%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
47%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
91%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
68%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
42%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
59%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
23%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
85%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more
70%
level
18%
Stará Říše scores more
13%

Sokol Lanžhot at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lanžhot vs Stará Říše

Sokol Lanžhot beat Stará Říše 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Na Šlajsi (Lanžhot).