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Sokol Čížová vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
PST
15:00
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
5/24/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 27Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová69%
×Draw15%
Otava Katovice15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.06
Otava Katovice
1.42

Sokol Čížová creates 115% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
85%
Sokol Čížová or Otava Katovice
85%
Draw or Otava Katovice
31%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
50%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
95%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
80%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
57%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
76%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
41%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
82%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 3.06

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
69%
level
15%
Otava Katovice scores more
15%

Sokol Čížová at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Čížová face Otava Katovice (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Sokol Čížová hosting Otava Katovice. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Čížová host Otava Katovice at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.