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Sokół Sieniawa vs Stal Stalowa Wola — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
1 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
11/8/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa29%
×Draw24%
Stal Stalowa Wola47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.27
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.69

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 33% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.74

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.07

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
53%
Sokół Sieniawa or Stal Stalowa Wola
76%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
71%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
12%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
72%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
36%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
14%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
82%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
50%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
38%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
29%
level
24%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
47%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Sieniawa vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Sokół Sieniawa beat Stal Stalowa Wola 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.