Sokół Sieniawa 3–2 Avia Świdnik: Result & Stats

Sokół Sieniawa

FT

3 – 2

Avia Świdnik

9/26/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa28%

×Draw23%

Avia Świdnik48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół SieniawaExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.76

Sokół Sieniawa

1.29

Avia Świdnik

1.76

Avia Świdnik creates 36% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 104 away

1.46

creates per match

1.89

1.63

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.46

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.63

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw

52%

Sokół Sieniawa or Avia Świdnik

77%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

72%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+

12%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals

72%

Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals

37%

Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals

14%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

83%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

52%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)

37%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more

28%

level

23%

Avia Świdnik scores more

48%

Avia Świdnik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff