Sogndal 3–4 Raufoss: Result & Stats

Sogndal

FT

3 – 4

Raufoss

5/2/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sogndal53%

×Draw20%

Raufoss26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchRaufoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.51

Sogndal

2.22

Raufoss

1.51

Sogndal creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.94

creates per match

1.40

1.63

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Sogndal

1.94

Raufoss

1.40

allows per match

Sogndal

1.63

Raufoss

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Raufoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

74%

Sogndal or Raufoss

80%

Draw or Raufoss

47%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

32%

Raufoss wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

89%

Sogndal 2+ goals

65%

Sogndal 3+ goals

38%

Raufoss 1+ goals

78%

Raufoss 2+ goals

44%

Raufoss 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

67%

Raufoss (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.94 + Raufoss defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.22

Raufoss attack 1.40 + Sogndal defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sogndal scores more

53%

level

20%

Raufoss scores more

26%

Sogndal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff