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Sogndal vs Ranheim — 1. Division 2025

Sogndal
Sogndal
Preview
15:00
Ranheim
Ranheim
7/26/20261. Division1. Division · Round 15Fosshaugane Campus
Big match
43%
Sogndal
model favours
43%22%34%

92% of Ranheim’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sogndal43%
×Draw22%
Ranheim34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal
1.85
Ranheim
1.63

Sogndal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sogndal
1.74
Ranheim
1.56

allows per match

Sogndal
1.70
Ranheim
1.96

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par
Ranheim+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Ranheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw
66%
Sogndal or Ranheim
78%
Draw or Ranheim
57%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+
23%
Ranheim wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals
84%
Sogndal 2+ goals
55%
Sogndal 3+ goals
28%
Ranheim 1+ goals
80%
Ranheim 2+ goals
48%
Ranheim 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)
56%
Ranheim (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Ranheim away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.74 + Ranheim defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ranheim attack 1.56 + Sogndal defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sogndal scores more
43%
level
22%
Ranheim scores more
34%

Sogndal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ranheim score first in only 17% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (69% and 92% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 88% of Sogndal’s matches
  • Sogndal score first in only 25% of matches
  • Ranheim have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 69% of Sogndal’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sogndal
LWLLW
Ranheim
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sogndal host Ranheim

July 26, 2026: Sogndal take on Ranheim in 1. Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sogndal host Ranheim at Fosshaugane Campus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.