Sogndal 3–0 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Sogndal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KFUM Oslo

A. Ndour 65', 62'

T. Totland 19'

11/7/2020

1. Division · Round 26Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sogndal45%

×Draw23%

KFUM Oslo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogndalExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.42

Sogndal

1.75

KFUM Oslo

1.42

Sogndal creates 23% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 62 away

1.78

creates per match

1.52

1.32

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Sogndal

1.78

KFUM Oslo

1.52

allows per match

Sogndal

1.32

KFUM Oslo

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw

69%

Sogndal or KFUM Oslo

77%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

55%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+

24%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals

83%

Sogndal 2+ goals

52%

Sogndal 3+ goals

25%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

76%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

41%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)

59%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.71 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.78 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

KFUM Oslo attack 1.52 + Sogndal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sogndal scores more

45%

level

23%

KFUM Oslo scores more

31%

Sogndal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

61'

62'

63'

65'

71'

K. Ghaedamini← F. Dahl

71'

D. Gaye← C. Lindquist

71'

A. Sanyang← J. Moula

76'

K. Hoven← E. Kupen

77'

A. Ndour

78'

H. Hoseth← R. Svindland

86'

E. Helgesen← A. Hoven

90'

A. Nord← A. Ndour

Sogndal

KFUM

12

Skjærstei

33

Hammer

24

▼

Lindquist

15

Gueye

17

▼

Dahl

22

▼

Øby

26

▼

7

37

9

20

▼

1

6

4

5

2

⚽

Totland

16

Lereng

8

Kristoffe

25

⚽2

▼

Ndour

7

Mannsverk

11

▼

Hoven

9

▼

Kupen

Manager: E. Bakke

76'▲K. Hoven←▼E. Kupen

86'▲E. Helgesen←▼A. Hoven

90'▲A. Nord←▼A. Ndour

Sogndal substitutes

18Hoven22Helgesen23Nord14Michael20Brændsrød24Jensen27Solberg28Sundberg50Johnsen

Manager: J. Isnes

63'▲M. Mahnin←▼O. Øby

71'▲K. Ghaedamini←▼F. Dahl

71'▲D. Gaye←▼C. Lindquist

71'▲A. Sanyang←▼J. Moula

78'▲H. Hoseth←▼R. Svindland

KFUM Oslo substitutes

27Mahnin2Ghaedamini3Gaye10Sanyang14Hoseth4Stubberud18Pedersen19Moula28Troudart