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Sogndal vs Bryne — 1. Division 2026

Sogndal
Sogndal
Preview
15:00
Bryne
Bryne
8/9/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17Fosshaugane Campus
Big match
47%
Sogndal
model favours
47%24%29%

Both teams score in 88% of Sogndal’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Sogndal47%
×Draw24%
Bryne29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogndal
1.71
Bryne
1.31

Sogndal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sogndal
1.78
Bryne
1.30

allows per match

Sogndal
1.32
Bryne
1.65

finishing

Sogndal+0.00on par
Bryne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogndal ↓

Bryne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sogndal or draw
71%
Sogndal or Bryne
76%
Draw or Bryne
53%

Winning margin

Sogndal wins by 2+
25%
Bryne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sogndal 1+ goals
82%
Sogndal 2+ goals
51%
Sogndal 3+ goals
24%
Bryne 1+ goals
73%
Bryne 2+ goals
38%
Bryne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sogndal (draw refunded)
61%
Bryne (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogndal at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Bryne away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.65 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogndal attack 1.78 + Bryne defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bryne attack 1.30 + Sogndal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sogndal scores more
47%
level
24%
Bryne scores more
29%

Sogndal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sogndal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sogndal score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Sogndal’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 38% of Bryne’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sogndal
LWLLW
Bryne
WDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sogndal face Bryne (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Sogndal hosting Bryne. Match starts August 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sogndal host Bryne at Fosshaugane Campus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.