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Sogdiana vs Navbahor — Super League 2026

Sogdiana
Sogdiana
Preview
16:00
Navbahor
Navbahor
11/27/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Sogdiana Sport Complex
Big match
39%
Sogdiana
model favours
39%28%33%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Sogdiana39%
×Draw28%
Navbahor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sogdiana
1.25
Navbahor
1.13

Sogdiana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 99 away

creates per match

Sogdiana
1.41
Navbahor
1.19

allows per match

Sogdiana
1.07
Navbahor
1.08

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par
Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Navbahor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw
67%
Sogdiana or Navbahor
72%
Draw or Navbahor
61%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+
17%
Navbahor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals
71%
Sogdiana 2+ goals
36%
Sogdiana 3+ goals
13%
Navbahor 1+ goals
68%
Navbahor 2+ goals
31%
Navbahor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)
54%
Navbahor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.08 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Navbahor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Navbahor attack 1.19 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sogdiana scores more
39%
level
28%
Navbahor scores more
33%

Sogdiana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Sogdiana
LWLWD
Navbahor
DLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sogdiana face Navbahor (Super League)

Super League returns with Sogdiana hosting Navbahor. Match starts November 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sogdiana host Navbahor at Sogdiana Sport Complex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.