Sogdiana 1–2 Nasaf: Result & Stats | Super League

Sogdiana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nasaf

M. Kolaković 4'

A. Mozgovoy 37'

O. Bozorov 9'

5/28/2023

Super League · Round 12So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sogdiana35%

×Draw28%

Nasaf37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchNasaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.19

Sogdiana

1.15

Nasaf

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 95 away

1.41

creates per match

1.31

1.07

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.41

Nasaf

1.31

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.07

Nasaf

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Nasaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

63%

Sogdiana or Nasaf

72%

Draw or Nasaf

65%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

14%

Nasaf wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

68%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

32%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

11%

Nasaf 1+ goals

70%

Nasaf 2+ goals

33%

Nasaf 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

49%

Nasaf (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.15

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sogdiana scores more

35%

level

28%

Nasaf scores more

37%

Nasaf at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Kolaković

9'

O. Bozorov

24'

S. Muhammadiyev← J. Mannonov

37'

A. Mozgovoy

45'

S. Mukhammadiev

46'

I. Shaykulov← M. Abdumutalov

46'

S. Serderov← D. Zajmović

56'

64'

N. Soyibov

70'

M. Yuldoshev← S. Andreev

70'

B. Abdurahimov← J. Sidikov

72'

A. Davronov

80'

A. Mozgovoy

85'

B. Yuldashov← N. Soyibov

90+3'

S. Komilov← A. Amonov

90+3'

S. Nurulloyev← O. Bozorov

Sogdiana

Nasaf

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Bošković

46'▲I. Shaykulov←▼M. Abdumutalov

46'▲S. Serderov←▼D. Zajmović

70'▲M. Yuldoshev←▼S. Andreev

85'▲B. Yuldashov←▼N. Soyibov

Sogdiana substitutes

ShaykulovSerderovYuldoshevYuldashovFayziyevOripovKhalilovAbdullayevAbdullayev

Manager: R. Berdyev

24'▲S. Muhammadiyev←▼J. Mannonov

70'▲B. Abdurahimov←▼J. Sidikov

90+3'▲S. Komilov←▼A. Amonov

90+3'▲S. Nurulloyev←▼O. Bozorov

Nasaf substitutes

MuhammadiyevAbdurahimovKomilovNurulloyevSoyibovTurdialievRahimovSadullayevErgashev

Super League: Sogdiana 1–2 Nasaf

Nasaf beat Sogdiana 2-1 in Super League on May 28, 2023.

Goals: M. Kolaković (4'), O. Bozorov (9'), A. Mozgovoy (37').

The match was played at So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi in Jizzax.

Sogdiana vs Nasaf — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Sogdiana 1–2 Nasaf