Sogdiana 4–1 Andijan: Result & Stats | Super League

Sogdiana

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Andijan

S. Rashidov 90+2'

S. Norxonov 53'

M. Boakye 44' (OG)

J. Kaxramonov 14'

I. Abdulkhaqov 90+3'

5/11/2021

Super League · Round 8So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sogdiana48%

×Draw26%

Andijan26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Sogdiana

1.50

Andijan

1.02

Sogdiana creates 47% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 88 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.07

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.41

Andijan

0.97

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.07

Andijan

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

74%

Sogdiana or Andijan

74%

Draw or Andijan

52%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

24%

Andijan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

78%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

44%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

19%

Andijan 1+ goals

64%

Andijan 2+ goals

27%

Andijan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

65%

Andijan (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.41 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Andijan attack 0.97 + Sogdiana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sogdiana scores more

48%

level

26%

Andijan scores more

26%

Sogdiana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Kaxramonov

44'

M. BoakyeOwn goal

45'

M. Isaev

45+3'

46'

A. Kamolov← M. Abdullaev

46'

F. Sohibjonov← D. Ismoilov

46'

I. Abdulkhaqov← M. Isayev

53'

S. Norxonov

65'

D. Nasridinov← J. Boltaboev

66'

E. Ismoilov← J. Khasanov

70'

S. Jurabekov

77'

E. Oripov← S. Djurabekov

79'

B. Nasimov← S. Norxonov

80'

S. Rashidov← A. Amanow

82'

A. Ismoilov← M. Boakye

83'

U. Ismonaliyev← D. Rahimqulov

84'

S. Mamadalijev

90+2'

S. Rashidov

90+3'

I. Abdulkhaqov

Sogdiana

Andijan

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Norxonov

Manager: U. Bakaev

65'▲D. Nasridinov←▼J. Boltaboev

66'▲E. Ismoilov←▼J. Khasanov

77'▲E. Oripov←▼S. Djurabekov

79'▲B. Nasimov←▼S. Norxonov

80'▲S. Rashidov←▼A. Amanow

Sogdiana substitutes

NasridinovIsmoilovOripovNasimovRashidovBegimkulovPirmatovNurmatovAbdullayev

Manager: O. Gʻulomxoʻjayev

46'▲A. Kamolov←▼M. Abdullaev

46'▲F. Sohibjonov←▼D. Ismoilov

46'▲I. Abdulkhaqov←▼M. Isayev

82'▲A. Ismoilov←▼M. Boakye

83'▲U. Ismonaliyev←▼D. Rahimqulov

Andijan substitutes

KamolovSohibjonovAbdulkhaqovIsmoilovIsmonaliyevAtakhanovQilichevSaidazimovToirov