Sofapaka 0–0 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Sofapaka

FT

0 – 0

Wazito FC

12/13/2020

FKF Premier League · Round 3Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sofapaka46%

×Draw28%

Wazito FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SofapakaExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Sofapaka

1.35

Wazito FC

0.93

Sofapaka creates 45% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 77 away

1.25

creates per match

0.75

1.10

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Sofapaka

1.25

Wazito FC

0.75

allows per match

Sofapaka

1.10

Wazito FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sofapaka+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sofapaka ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sofapaka or draw

74%

Sofapaka or Wazito FC

72%

Draw or Wazito FC

54%

Winning margin

Sofapaka wins by 2+

22%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sofapaka 1+ goals

74%

Sofapaka 2+ goals

39%

Sofapaka 3+ goals

15%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

61%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

24%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sofapaka (draw refunded)

64%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sofapaka at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sofapaka attack 1.25 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Sofapaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sofapaka scores more

46%

level

28%

Wazito FC scores more

26%

Sofapaka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sofapaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff