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Šobec Lesce vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Šobec Lesce
Šobec Lesce
Preview
15:00
Adria
Adria
4/3/20273. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 19
42%
Adria
model favours
34%24%42%
1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Šobec Lesce34%
×Draw24%
Adria42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šobec Lesce
1.39
Adria
1.56

Adria creates 12% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

creates per match

Šobec Lesce
1.55
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Šobec Lesce
1.68
Adria
1.22

finishing

Šobec Lesce+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šobec Lesce ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Šobec Lesce or draw
58%
Šobec Lesce or Adria
76%
Draw or Adria
66%

Winning margin

Šobec Lesce wins by 2+
15%
Adria wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Šobec Lesce 1+ goals
75%
Šobec Lesce 2+ goals
40%
Šobec Lesce 3+ goals
16%
Adria 1+ goals
79%
Adria 2+ goals
46%
Adria 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Šobec Lesce (draw refunded)
45%
Adria (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šobec Lesce at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šobec Lesce attack 1.55 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Adria attack 1.44 + Šobec Lesce defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Šobec Lesce scores more
34%
level
24%
Adria scores more
42%

Adria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Lesce
WLLWD
Adria
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šobec Lesce vs Adria — Match Preview

Šobec Lesce face Adria on April 3, 2027 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.