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SNL vs Bintang Lair — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
Canc
19:30
Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
8/13/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

SNL52%
×Draw19%
Bintang Lair28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
2.51
Bintang Lair
1.83

SNL creates 37% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 16 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
Bintang Lair
1.31

allows per match

SNL
2.36
Bintang Lair
3.63

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Bintang Lair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

SNL or draw
72%
SNL or Bintang Lair
81%
Draw or Bintang Lair
48%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
33%
Bintang Lair wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
92%
SNL 2+ goals
71%
SNL 3+ goals
45%
Bintang Lair 1+ goals
84%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
54%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
65%
Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.51

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SNL scores more
52%
level
19%
Bintang Lair scores more
28%

SNL at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SNL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SNL vs Bintang Lair — Match Preview

SNL face Bintang Lair on August 13, 2022 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SNL host Bintang Lair at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.