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SNIM vs AC Douane — Premier League 2020

SNIM
SNIM
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AC Douane
AC Douane
10/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stade Cansado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

SNIM31%
×Draw30%
AC Douane39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNIM
0.97
AC Douane
1.11

AC Douane creates 14% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

creates per match

SNIM
0.96
AC Douane
1.36

allows per match

SNIM
0.87
AC Douane
0.98

finishing

SNIM+0.00on par
AC Douane+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNIM ↓

AC Douane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SNIM or draw
61%
SNIM or AC Douane
70%
Draw or AC Douane
69%

Winning margin

SNIM wins by 2+
11%
AC Douane wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SNIM 1+ goals
62%
SNIM 2+ goals
25%
SNIM 3+ goals
7%
AC Douane 1+ goals
67%
AC Douane 2+ goals
30%
AC Douane 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SNIM (draw refunded)
45%
AC Douane (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNIM at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.87 · 78 matches

AC Douane away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNIM attack 0.96 + AC Douane defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

AC Douane attack 1.36 + SNIM defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SNIM scores more
31%
level
30%
AC Douane scores more
39%

AC Douane at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: SNIM 0–3 AC Douane

AC Douane beat SNIM 3-0 in Premier League on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Cansado in Nouadhibou.