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Smouha SC vs Pyramids FC — Premier League 2018

Smouha SC
Smouha SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pyramids FC
Pyramids FC
9/2/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Smouha SC30%
×Draw27%
Pyramids FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smouha SC
1.09
Pyramids FC
1.36

Pyramids FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Smouha SC
1.25
Pyramids FC
1.61

allows per match

Smouha SC
1.11
Pyramids FC
0.94

finishing

Smouha SC+0.00on par
Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smouha SC ↓

Pyramids FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Smouha SC or draw
57%
Smouha SC or Pyramids FC
73%
Draw or Pyramids FC
70%

Winning margin

Smouha SC wins by 2+
12%
Pyramids FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Smouha SC 1+ goals
66%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
30%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
10%
Pyramids FC 1+ goals
74%
Pyramids FC 2+ goals
39%
Pyramids FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Smouha SC (draw refunded)
41%
Pyramids FC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smouha SC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smouha SC attack 1.25 + Pyramids FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Pyramids FC attack 1.61 + Smouha SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Smouha SC scores more
30%
level
27%
Pyramids FC scores more
43%

Pyramids FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pyramids FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Smouha SC 1 – 1 Pyramids FC

Smouha SC and Pyramids FC drew 1-1 in Premier League on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab).