Smedby 1–0 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Smedby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Syrianska FC

9/16/2023

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 21PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Smedby43%

×Draw23%

Syrianska FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmedbyExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.59

Smedby

1.79

Syrianska FC

1.59

Smedby creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

1.73

creates per match

1.73

1.46

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Smedby

1.73

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

Smedby

1.46

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smedby+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smedby ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Smedby or draw

65%

Smedby or Syrianska FC

77%

Draw or Syrianska FC

57%

Winning margin

Smedby wins by 2+

23%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Smedby 1+ goals

83%

Smedby 2+ goals

53%

Smedby 3+ goals

26%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

80%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

47%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Smedby (draw refunded)

55%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smedby at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smedby attack 1.73 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Smedby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Smedby scores more

43%

level

23%

Syrianska FC scores more

35%

Smedby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Smedby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff