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Smedby vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Smedby
Smedby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
6/12/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 12PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Smedby52%
×Draw21%
IFK Eskilstuna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smedby
2.08
IFK Eskilstuna
1.44

Smedby creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

creates per match

Smedby
1.73
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Smedby
1.46
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Smedby+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smedby ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Smedby or draw
73%
Smedby or IFK Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
48%

Winning margin

Smedby wins by 2+
31%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Smedby 1+ goals
87%
Smedby 2+ goals
61%
Smedby 3+ goals
34%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
76%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
42%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Smedby (draw refunded)
66%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smedby at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smedby attack 1.73 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.08

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Smedby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Smedby scores more
52%
level
21%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
27%

Smedby at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Smedby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smedby vs IFK Eskilstuna

Smedby beat IFK Eskilstuna 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at PreZero Arena in Norrköping.