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Šmartno vs Šampion Celje — 3. SNL - East 2020

Šmartno
Šmartno
Preview
13:00
Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
10/31/20263. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 12
54%
Šmartno
model favours
54%22%24%

Šmartno and Šampion Celje have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Šmartno54%
×Draw22%
Šampion Celje24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šmartno
1.92
Šampion Celje
1.22

Šmartno creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Šmartno
1.50
Šampion Celje
1.44

allows per match

Šmartno
1.00
Šampion Celje
2.33

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par
Šampion Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Šampion Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw
76%
Šmartno or Šampion Celje
78%
Draw or Šampion Celje
46%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+
31%
Šampion Celje wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals
85%
Šmartno 2+ goals
57%
Šmartno 3+ goals
30%
Šampion Celje 1+ goals
70%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
34%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)
69%
Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Šampion Celje away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 1.50 + Šampion Celje defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Šampion Celje attack 1.44 + Šmartno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Šmartno scores more
54%
level
22%
Šampion Celje scores more
24%

Šmartno at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Šmartno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Šmartno
LWWLL
Celje
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šmartno vs Šampion Celje — Match Preview

Šmartno face Šampion Celje on October 31, 2026 in this 3. SNL - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.