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Slovan Ljubljana vs Brežice — 2. SNL 2019

Slovan Ljubljana
Slovan Ljubljana
Preview
16:00
Brežice
Brežice
9/27/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 8
46%
Slovan Ljubljana
model favours
46%25%29%

Slovan Ljubljana and Brežice have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Ljubljana46%
×Draw25%
Brežice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Ljubljana
1.53
Brežice
1.15

Slovan Ljubljana creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.20
Brežice
0.86

allows per match

Slovan Ljubljana
1.43
Brežice
1.86

finishing

Slovan Ljubljana+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Ljubljana ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Slovan Ljubljana or draw
71%
Slovan Ljubljana or Brežice
75%
Draw or Brežice
54%

Winning margin

Slovan Ljubljana wins by 2+
23%
Brežice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovan Ljubljana 1+ goals
78%
Slovan Ljubljana 2+ goals
45%
Slovan Ljubljana 3+ goals
20%
Brežice 1+ goals
68%
Brežice 2+ goals
32%
Brežice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Ljubljana (draw refunded)
62%
Brežice (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Ljubljana at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Ljubljana attack 1.20 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Brežice attack 0.86 + Slovan Ljubljana defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovan Ljubljana scores more
46%
level
25%
Brežice scores more
29%

Slovan Ljubljana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovan Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ljubljana
LWLWD
Brežice
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Ljubljana face Brežice (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Slovan Ljubljana hosting Brežice. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.