Slovan Liberec W 1–2 Slovácko W: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slovácko W

9/14/2022

1. Liga Women · Round 1Stadion Donín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Slovan Liberec W36%

×Draw22%

Slovácko W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec WExpected goals in this matchSlovácko W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.86

Slovan Liberec W

1.70

Slovácko W

1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.83

creates per match

1.90

1.83

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Slovácko W

1.90

allows per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Slovácko W

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Slovácko W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec W ↓

Slovácko W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec W or draw

58%

Slovan Liberec W or Slovácko W

78%

Draw or Slovácko W

64%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+

18%

Slovácko W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals

82%

Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals

51%

Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals

24%

Slovácko W 1+ goals

84%

Slovácko W 2+ goals

55%

Slovácko W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)

46%

Slovácko W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 60 matches

Slovácko W away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.83 + Slovácko W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.70

Slovácko W attack 1.90 + Slovan Liberec W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Liberec W scores more

36%

level

22%

Slovácko W scores more

42%

Slovácko W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff