Slovan Liberec W 1–4 Slavia Praha W: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Slavia Praha W

3/9/2024

1. Liga Women · Round 11UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Slovan Liberec W14%

×Draw15%

Slavia Praha W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan Liberec WExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.94

Slovan Liberec W

1.25

Slavia Praha W

2.94

Slavia Praha W creates 135% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.83

creates per match

4.05

1.83

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Slavia Praha W

4.05

allows per match

Slovan Liberec W

1.83

Slavia Praha W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec W ↓

Slavia Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec W or draw

29%

Slovan Liberec W or Slavia Praha W

85%

Draw or Slavia Praha W

86%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+

5%

Slavia Praha W wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals

71%

Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals

36%

Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals

13%

Slavia Praha W 1+ goals

95%

Slavia Praha W 2+ goals

79%

Slavia Praha W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)

16%

Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 60 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 4.05, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.83 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Slavia Praha W attack 4.05 + Slovan Liberec W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Slovan Liberec W scores more

14%

level

15%

Slavia Praha W scores more

71%

Slavia Praha W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff