Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovan Liberec W vs Baník Ostrava W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Slovan Liberec W
Slovan Liberec W
FT
2 – 0
Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
9/24/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 5Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slovan Liberec W59%
×Draw18%
Baník Ostrava W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec W
2.58
Baník Ostrava W
1.55

Slovan Liberec W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec W
1.83
Baník Ostrava W
1.27

allows per match

Slovan Liberec W
1.83
Baník Ostrava W
3.33

finishing

Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec W ↓

Baník Ostrava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec W or draw
78%
Slovan Liberec W or Baník Ostrava W
82%
Draw or Baník Ostrava W
41%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+
39%
Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals
92%
Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals
72%
Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals
47%
Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
79%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
46%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)
73%
Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 60 matches

Baník Ostrava W away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.83 + Baník Ostrava W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.58

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.27 + Slovan Liberec W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Slovan Liberec W scores more
59%
level
18%
Baník Ostrava W scores more
22%

Slovan Liberec W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Slovan Liberec W 2–0 Baník Ostrava W

Slovan Liberec W beat Baník Ostrava W 2-0 in 1. Liga Women on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.