Slovan Liberec 2–3 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Slavia Praha

D. Preisler 8'

L. Kulenović 5'

C. Zafeiris 87'

M. van Buren 53' (pen)

I. Schranz 16'

10/8/2023

Czech Liga · Round 11Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slovan Liberec26%

×Draw27%

Slavia Praha47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.41

Slovan Liberec

0.99

Slavia Praha

1.41

Slavia Praha creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

0.90

creates per match

1.70

1.12

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

0.90

Slavia Praha

1.70

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.12

Slavia Praha

1.08

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less

Slavia Praha+0.05on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

53%

Slovan Liberec or Slavia Praha

73%

Draw or Slavia Praha

74%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

10%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

63%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

26%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

8%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

76%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

41%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

36%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Slavia Praha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Slavia Praha attack 1.70 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

26%

level

27%

Slavia Praha scores more

47%

Slavia Praha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

L. Kulenović

Slovan Liberec · F

7.6

Match Events

5'

L. Kulenović

8'

D. Preisler↳ A. Ghali

16'

I. Schranz↳ M. Chytil

46'

M. van Buren← D. Douděra

46'

M. Tomič← C. Wallem

51'

Mojmir ChytilPenalty confirmed

53'

M. van BurenPenalty

57'

Igoh Ogbu

58'

Christos Zafeiris

61'

D. Višinský← C. Frýdek

63'

M. Tijani← M. Chytil

72'

Lukáš Červ

73'

I. Varfolomeev← L. Červ

73'

75'

76'

77'

80'

M. Jurásek← L. Provod

83'

Mick van Buren

83'

V. Jurečka← I. Schranz

87'

C. Zafeiris↳ M. Jurásek

90+6'

Ivan Varfolomieiev

90+2'

Chidera Micheal Okoh

90'

C. Okoh← M. Fukala

90'

M. Rabušic← J. Žambůrek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovanSlavia

Overview

36%Possession64%

15Total Shots11

2.04Expected Goals (xG)2.14

7Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target4

3Off Target5

5Blocked2

13Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

272Total Passes490

184Accurate Passes403

68%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 2–3 Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Slovan Liberec 3-2 in Czech Liga on October 8, 2023.

Goals: L. Kulenović (5'), D. Preisler (8'), I. Schranz (16'), M. van Buren (53' pen), C. Zafeiris (87').

Slavia Praha controlled possession (64%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.

Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 2–3 Slavia Praha