Slovan Liberec 2–2 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Slavia Praha

V. Olatunji 90+5'

L. Červ 25'

M. van Buren 65' (pen)

P. Olayinka 30'

3/18/2023

Czech Liga · Round 24Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slovan Liberec27%

×Draw27%

Slavia Praha46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.37

Slovan Liberec

0.98

Slavia Praha

1.37

Slavia Praha creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

0.90

creates per match

1.62

1.12

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

0.90

Slavia Praha

1.62

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.12

Slavia Praha

1.05

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less

Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

54%

Slovan Liberec or Slavia Praha

73%

Draw or Slavia Praha

73%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

10%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

62%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

26%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

8%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

75%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

40%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

37%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

27%

level

27%

Slavia Praha scores more

46%

Slavia Praha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

30'

39'

45+1'

56'

C. Zafeiris← L. Masopust

56'

M. van Buren← S. Tecl

63'

Dominik Preisler

65'

M. van BurenPenalty

67'

Oscar Dorley

70'

A. Ghali← D. Preisler

76'

M. Jurásek← O. Lingr

77'

M. Kozák← I. Rondić

78'

M. Rabušic← K. Mészáros

80'

I. Varfolomeev← L. Červ

84'

Christos Zafeiris

88'

Peter Olayinka

89'

Gigli Ndefe

90+1'

J. Hromada← M. van Buren

90+5'

V. Olatunji↳ M. Doumbia

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SlovanSlavia

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots12

2Corners6

14Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target4

1Off Target6

2Blocked2

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha

Slovan Liberec and Slavia Praha drew 2-2 in Czech Liga on March 18, 2023.

Goals: L. Červ (25'), P. Olayinka (30'), M. van Buren (65' pen), V. Olatunji (90+5').

Slovan Liberec controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.

Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec vs Slavia Praha