Slovan Liberec 0–1 Plzen: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Plzen

9/3/2022

Czech Liga · Round 7Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slovan Liberec43%

×Draw25%

Plzen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.27

Slovan Liberec

1.52

Plzen

1.27

Slovan Liberec creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

0.90

creates per match

1.41

1.12

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

0.90

Plzen

1.41

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.12

Plzen

2.14

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less

Plzen+0.02on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

68%

Slovan Liberec or Plzen

75%

Draw or Plzen

57%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

21%

Plzen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

78%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

45%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

20%

Plzen 1+ goals

72%

Plzen 2+ goals

36%

Plzen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

58%

Plzen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Plzen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.52

Plzen attack 1.41 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

43%

level

25%

Plzen scores more

32%

Slovan Liberec at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff