Slovan Liberec 1–2 Plzen: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Plzen

P. Musa 79'

J. Kopic 70'

L. Pernica 57'

7/19/2019

Czech Liga · Round 2Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Slovan Liberec50%

×Draw23%

Plzen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.29

Slovan Liberec

1.83

Plzen

1.29

Slovan Liberec creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.43

creates per match

1.45

1.12

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

1.43

Plzen

1.45

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.12

Plzen

2.22

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Slovan Liberec+0.03on par

Plzen-0.07on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

73%

Slovan Liberec or Plzen

77%

Draw or Plzen

50%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

28%

Plzen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

84%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

54%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

28%

Plzen 1+ goals

72%

Plzen 2+ goals

37%

Plzen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

65%

Plzen (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.22 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 1.43 + Plzen defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.83

Plzen attack 1.45 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

50%

level

23%

Plzen scores more

27%

Slovan Liberec at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

16'

17'

52'

55'

M. Koscelník← J. Pešek

57'

L. Pernica

58'

P. Musa← J. Pázler

70'

J. Kopic

72'

A. Nešický← O. Dorley

74'

Radim Breite

79'

P. Musa

80'

T. Chorý← M. Krmenčík

86'

O. Mihálik← A. Čermák

Statistics

SlovanPlzen

Overview

1Corners4

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 1–2 Plzen

Plzen beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 in Czech Liga on July 19, 2019.

Goals: L. Pernica (57'), J. Kopic (70'), P. Musa (79').

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.

Slovan Liberec vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 1–2 Plzen