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Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019

Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
2/24/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 22Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Slovan Liberec44%
×Draw25%
FK Jablonec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec
1.53
FK Jablonec
1.22

Slovan Liberec creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec
0.90
FK Jablonec
1.31

allows per match

Slovan Liberec
1.12
FK Jablonec
2.17

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less
FK Jablonec+0.36scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

FK Jablonec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw
70%
Slovan Liberec or FK Jablonec
75%
Draw or FK Jablonec
56%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
22%
FK Jablonec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
78%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
45%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
20%
FK Jablonec 1+ goals
70%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
34%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
59%
FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.17 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + FK Jablonec defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

FK Jablonec attack 1.31 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more
44%
level
25%
FK Jablonec scores more
30%

Slovan Liberec at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovan Liberec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 3–3 FK Jablonec

Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec drew 3-3 in Czech Liga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.