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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
CANC
14:30
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
5/2/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa56%
×Draw22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.98
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.16

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
78%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
78%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
44%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
33%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
86%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
59%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
31%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
69%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
32%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
72%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
56%
level
22%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
22%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovan Duslo Šaľa host Nové Mesto nad Váhom

May 2, 2021: Slovan Duslo Šaľa take on Nové Mesto nad Váhom in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa host Nové Mesto nad Váhom at Futbalový štadión FK Slovan Duslo Šaľa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.