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Slovan Bratislava W vs Nové Zámky W — I Liga - Women 2020

Slovan Bratislava W
Slovan Bratislava W
FT
4 – 0
Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
N. Botkova 70'
M. Svecova 40', 20'
K. Tipulova 37'
7/31/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 1Vedľajšie ihrisko Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Slovan Bratislava W90%
×Draw6%
Nové Zámky W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava W
4.32
Nové Zámky W
0.84

Slovan Bratislava W creates 414% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava W
4.14
Nové Zámky W
0.73

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava W
0.96
Nové Zámky W
4.50

finishing

Slovan Bratislava W+0.00on par
Nové Zámky W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava W ↓

Nové Zámky W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava W or draw
97%
Slovan Bratislava W or Nové Zámky W
94%
Draw or Nové Zámky W
10%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava W wins by 2+
78%
Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava W 1+ goals
98%
Slovan Bratislava W 2+ goals
92%
Slovan Bratislava W 3+ goals
77%
Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
57%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
21%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava W (draw refunded)
96%
Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava W at home — creates 4.14, concedes 0.96 · 69 matches

Nové Zámky W away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava W attack 4.14 + Nové Zámky W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.32

Nové Zámky W attack 0.73 + Slovan Bratislava W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Slovan Bratislava W scores more
90%
level
6%
Nové Zámky W scores more
3%

Slovan Bratislava W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. Svecova
37'
K. Tipulova
40'
M. Svecova
70'
N. Botkova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Slovan Bratislava W 4–0 Nové Zámky W

Slovan Bratislava W beat Nové Zámky W 4-0 in I Liga - Women on July 31, 2021.

Goals: M. Svecova (20', 40'), K. Tipulova (37'), N. Botkova (70').

The match was played at Vedľajšie ihrisko Pasienky in Bratislava.