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Slovan Bratislava II vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Slovan Bratislava II
Slovan Bratislava II
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Dubnica
Dubnica
12/6/20202. liga2. liga · Round 15Štadión Pasienky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Slovan Bratislava II45%
×Draw23%
Dubnica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Bratislava II
1.73
Dubnica
1.40

Slovan Bratislava II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 55 away

creates per match

Slovan Bratislava II
1.58
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Slovan Bratislava II
1.60
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Slovan Bratislava II+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Bratislava II ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovan Bratislava II or draw
69%
Slovan Bratislava II or Dubnica
77%
Draw or Dubnica
55%

Winning margin

Slovan Bratislava II wins by 2+
24%
Dubnica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovan Bratislava II 1+ goals
82%
Slovan Bratislava II 2+ goals
52%
Slovan Bratislava II 3+ goals
25%
Dubnica 1+ goals
75%
Dubnica 2+ goals
41%
Dubnica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Bratislava II (draw refunded)
59%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Bratislava II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Bratislava II attack 1.58 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Slovan Bratislava II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovan Bratislava II scores more
45%
level
23%
Dubnica scores more
31%

Slovan Bratislava II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovan Bratislava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slovan Bratislava II 0–4 Dubnica

Dubnica beat Slovan Bratislava II 4-0 in 2. liga on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión Pasienky in Bratislava.