Slovácko W 2–3 Sparta Praha W: Result & Stats

Slovácko W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sparta Praha W

9/22/2024

1. Liga Women · Round 5Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Slovácko W19%

×Draw18%

Sparta Praha W63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovácko WExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.67

Slovácko W

1.45

Sparta Praha W

2.67

Sparta Praha W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

2.03

creates per match

3.82

1.53

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Slovácko W

2.03

Sparta Praha W

3.82

allows per match

Slovácko W

1.53

Sparta Praha W

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovácko W+0.00on par

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko W ↓

Sparta Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Slovácko W or draw

37%

Slovácko W or Sparta Praha W

82%

Draw or Sparta Praha W

81%

Winning margin

Slovácko W wins by 2+

8%

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Slovácko W 1+ goals

77%

Slovácko W 2+ goals

42%

Slovácko W 3+ goals

18%

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals

93%

Sparta Praha W 2+ goals

74%

Sparta Praha W 3+ goals

49%

Draw no bet

Slovácko W (draw refunded)

24%

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko W at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

Sparta Praha W away — creates 3.82, concedes 0.87 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko W attack 2.03 + Sparta Praha W defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sparta Praha W attack 3.82 + Slovácko W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Slovácko W scores more

19%

level

18%

Sparta Praha W scores more

63%

Sparta Praha W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sparta Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff