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Slovácko W vs Slavia Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Slovácko W
Slovácko W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Slavia Praha W
Slavia Praha W
5/4/20241. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Championship Round - 3Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Slovácko W17%
×Draw17%
Slavia Praha W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko W
1.35
Slavia Praha W
2.79

Slavia Praha W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Slovácko W
2.03
Slavia Praha W
4.05

allows per match

Slovácko W
1.53
Slavia Praha W
0.67

finishing

Slovácko W+0.00on par
Slavia Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko W ↓

Slavia Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Slovácko W or draw
33%
Slovácko W or Slavia Praha W
83%
Draw or Slavia Praha W
83%

Winning margin

Slovácko W wins by 2+
7%
Slavia Praha W wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Slovácko W 1+ goals
74%
Slovácko W 2+ goals
39%
Slovácko W 3+ goals
15%
Slavia Praha W 1+ goals
94%
Slavia Praha W 2+ goals
76%
Slavia Praha W 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Slovácko W (draw refunded)
20%
Slavia Praha W (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko W at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

Slavia Praha W away — creates 4.05, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko W attack 2.03 + Slavia Praha W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.35

Slavia Praha W attack 4.05 + Slovácko W defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slovácko W scores more
17%
level
17%
Slavia Praha W scores more
67%

Slavia Praha W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Slavia Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko W vs Slavia Praha W

Slavia Praha W beat Slovácko W 3-0 in 1. Liga Women on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.