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Slovácko vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Slovácko
Slovácko
Preview
13:00
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
4/24/2027Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 30Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty
Big match
51%
Slavia Praha
model favours
24%26%51%

Slovácko score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slovácko24%
×Draw26%
Slavia Praha51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko
0.97
Slavia Praha
1.55

Slavia Praha creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Slovácko
0.89
Slavia Praha
1.62

allows per match

Slovácko
1.48
Slavia Praha
1.05

finishing

Slovácko-0.06on par
Slavia Praha+0.25scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw
49%
Slovácko or Slavia Praha
74%
Draw or Slavia Praha
76%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+
8%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals
62%
Slovácko 2+ goals
25%
Slovácko 3+ goals
7%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
79%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
46%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)
32%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 0.89 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Slavia Praha attack 1.62 + Slovácko defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slovácko scores more
24%
level
26%
Slavia Praha scores more
51%

Slavia Praha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Slavia Praha score first in only 32% of matches
  • 73% of Slavia Praha’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of Slovácko’s matches
  • Slavia Praha have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Slovácko win just 32% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
  • Slovácko sit 15, Slavia Praha 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Slovácko
Balanced
Slavia Praha
Possession-dominant
46%Possession60%
74%Pass accuracy78%
8.0Shots13.8
0.67xGBiggest gap2.24
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SlováckoSlavia Praha

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Slovácko
2
Draws
8
Slavia Praha
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 30%
0–30–10–20–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Slovácko
DWDLW
Praha
WLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovácko host Slavia Praha

April 24, 2027: Slovácko take on Slavia Praha in Czech Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovácko host Slavia Praha at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.