Slovácko 1–1 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Slovácko

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Praha

Merchas Doski 1'

L. Provod 74' (pen)

9/4/2022

Czech Liga · Round 7Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slovácko23%

×Draw25%

Slavia Praha51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SlováckoExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.57

Slovácko

0.97

Slavia Praha

1.57

Slavia Praha creates 62% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

0.89

creates per match

1.67

1.48

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Slovácko

0.89

Slavia Praha

1.67

allows per match

Slovácko

1.48

Slavia Praha

1.05

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Slovácko-0.06on par

Slavia Praha+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw

49%

Slovácko or Slavia Praha

75%

Draw or Slavia Praha

77%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+

8%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals

62%

Slovácko 2+ goals

25%

Slovácko 3+ goals

7%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

79%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

46%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)

31%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 0.89 + Slavia Praha defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Slavia Praha attack 1.67 + Slovácko defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slovácko scores more

23%

level

25%

Slavia Praha scores more

51%

Slavia Praha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Merchas Doski↳ M. Petržela

46'

M. Usor← I. Schranz

59'

O. Lingr← Eduardo Santos

61'

M. Kohút← M. Trávník

61'

D. Holzer← M. Petržela

72'

Michal Kadlec

74'

L. ProvodPenalty

79'

F. Vecheta← O. Mihálik

79'

V. Sinyavskiy← M. Tomič

84'

C. Tiéhi← L. Masopust

84'

Ewerton← S. Tecl

90+8'

Moses Usor

90+4'

P. Šimko← P. Reinberk

Shots

Statistics

SlováckoSlavia

Overview

9Total Shots11

0Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target3

4Off Target4

1Blocked4

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3