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Slovácko U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zbrojovka Brno U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
8/19/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 3Stadion Širůch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Slovácko U1942%
×Draw23%
Zbrojovka Brno U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko U19
1.69
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.53

Slovácko U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Slovácko U19
1.48
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.62

allows per match

Slovácko U19
1.44
Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.91

finishing

Slovácko U19+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko U19 ↓

Zbrojovka Brno U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slovácko U19 or draw
65%
Slovácko U19 or Zbrojovka Brno U19
77%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno U19
58%

Winning margin

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
21%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slovácko U19 1+ goals
82%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
50%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
24%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals
78%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals
45%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko U19 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 79 matches

Zbrojovka Brno U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.91 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko U19 attack 1.48 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 1.62 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovácko U19 scores more
42%
level
23%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more
35%

Slovácko U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovácko U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko U19 vs Zbrojovka Brno U19

Slovácko U19 beat Zbrojovka Brno U19 4-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Širůch in Staré Město.