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Slovácko U19 vs Viktoria Plzeň U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň U19
Viktoria Plzeň U19
4/30/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 23Stadion Širůch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Slovácko U1939%
×Draw24%
Viktoria Plzeň U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko U19
1.55
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 79 away

creates per match

Slovácko U19
1.48
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.57

allows per match

Slovácko U19
1.44
Viktoria Plzeň U19
1.62

finishing

Slovácko U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko U19 ↓

Viktoria Plzeň U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Slovácko U19 or draw
63%
Slovácko U19 or Viktoria Plzeň U19
76%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň U19
61%

Winning margin

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
19%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slovácko U19 1+ goals
79%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
46%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
20%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 1+ goals
78%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 2+ goals
44%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko U19 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 79 matches

Viktoria Plzeň U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.62 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko U19 attack 1.48 + Viktoria Plzeň U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.55

Viktoria Plzeň U19 attack 1.57 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovácko U19 scores more
39%
level
24%
Viktoria Plzeň U19 scores more
37%

Slovácko U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovácko U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Slovácko U19 2–0 Viktoria Plzeň U19

Slovácko U19 beat Viktoria Plzeň U19 2-0 in 1. Liga U19 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Širůch in Staré Město.