Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovácko U19 vs Příbram U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
CANC
09:00
Příbram U19
Příbram U19
4/24/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 13UMT Širůch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Slovácko U1972%
×Draw15%
Příbram U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko U19
2.86
Příbram U19
1.15

Slovácko U19 creates 149% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

creates per match

Slovácko U19
1.48
Příbram U19
0.85

allows per match

Slovácko U19
1.44
Příbram U19
4.24

finishing

Slovácko U19+0.00on par
Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Slovácko U19 or draw
87%
Slovácko U19 or Příbram U19
85%
Draw or Příbram U19
28%

Winning margin

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
51%
Příbram U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slovácko U19 1+ goals
94%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
77%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
53%
Příbram U19 1+ goals
68%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
32%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko U19 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 79 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko U19 attack 1.48 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.86

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Slovácko U19 scores more
72%
level
15%
Příbram U19 scores more
13%

Slovácko U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Slovácko U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovácko U19 face Příbram U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Slovácko U19 hosting Příbram U19. Match starts April 24, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slovácko U19 host Příbram U19 at UMT Širůch.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.