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Slovácko U19 vs Opava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
FT
5 – 1
Opava U19
Opava U19
8/29/20201. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 2Stadion Širůch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Slovácko U1955%
×Draw22%
Opava U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko U19
1.94
Opava U19
1.16

Slovácko U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

creates per match

Slovácko U19
1.48
Opava U19
0.88

allows per match

Slovácko U19
1.44
Opava U19
2.39

finishing

Slovácko U19+0.00on par
Opava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko U19 ↓

Opava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovácko U19 or draw
77%
Slovácko U19 or Opava U19
78%
Draw or Opava U19
45%

Winning margin

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
32%
Opava U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovácko U19 1+ goals
86%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
58%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
30%
Opava U19 1+ goals
69%
Opava U19 2+ goals
32%
Opava U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Opava U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko U19 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 79 matches

Opava U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko U19 attack 1.48 + Opava U19 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.94

Opava U19 attack 0.88 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Slovácko U19 scores more
55%
level
22%
Opava U19 scores more
23%

Slovácko U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Slovácko U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko U19 vs Opava U19

Slovácko U19 beat Opava U19 5-1 in 1. Liga U19 on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Širůch in Staré Město.