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Slovácko U19 vs Karviná U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Slovácko U19
Slovácko U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karviná U19
Karviná U19
5/10/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 18Stadion Širůch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Slovácko U1950%
×Draw23%
Karviná U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko U19
1.89
Karviná U19
1.34

Slovácko U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 63 away

creates per match

Slovácko U19
1.48
Karviná U19
1.24

allows per match

Slovácko U19
1.44
Karviná U19
2.29

finishing

Slovácko U19+0.00on par
Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slovácko U19 or draw
73%
Slovácko U19 or Karviná U19
77%
Draw or Karviná U19
50%

Winning margin

Slovácko U19 wins by 2+
28%
Karviná U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovácko U19 1+ goals
85%
Slovácko U19 2+ goals
56%
Slovácko U19 3+ goals
29%
Karviná U19 1+ goals
74%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
39%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slovácko U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko U19 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.44 · 79 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko U19 attack 1.48 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Slovácko U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovácko U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Karviná U19 scores more
27%

Slovácko U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovácko U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko U19 vs Karviná U19

Slovácko U19 and Karviná U19 drew 1-1 in 1. Liga U19 on May 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Širůch in Staré Město.