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Slovácko II vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
3 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
P. Juroska 68', 47'
F. Vecheta 18'
T. Selinger 57'
10/31/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Slovácko II43%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.52
Slovan Rosice
1.27

Slovácko II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
68%
Slovácko II or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
57%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
21%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
78%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
45%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
20%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
72%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
36%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
58%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Slovácko II scores more
43%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
32%

Slovácko II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
F. Vecheta
47'
P. Juroska
51'
M. Polasek
57'
T. Selinger
60'
M. Polasek← E. Yohanna
60'
L. Pernica← D. Pisar
61'
J. Krejci
65'
R. Buchta
68'
P. Juroska
71'
D. Kratochvila← D. Kratochvila
71'
M. Merdovic← G. Stojmenov
71'
D. Pazourek← D. Pazourek
81'
R. Olsansky← R. Olsansky
82'
T. Praks← T. Praks
82'
M. Kozel← M. Kozel
90+1'
T. Selinger← P. Sip

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovácko II vs Slovan Rosice

Slovácko II beat Slovan Rosice 3-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 31, 2021.

Goals: F. Vecheta (18'), P. Juroska (47', 68'), T. Selinger (57').

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.